A new study states that new breast cancer cases in the U.S. are forecast to rise by as much as 50% by 2030.
The study, which was conducted by the researchers from the National Cancer Institute, and presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research, states that number of breast cancer cases in American women will increase by about 50% by 2030.
Philip S. Rosenberg, PhD., senior investigator at the National Cancer Institute, and the lead author of the study, said, “The surge in cases will pose a huge challenge to medical providers over the coming decades. Although breast cancer overall is going to increase, different subtypes of breast cancer are moving in different directions and on different trajectories.”
For their study, the researchers used the cancer incidence data, census data and forecasting models from the National Cancer Institute. Using the data they estimated that the total number of new breast cancer cases would increase from 283,000 in 2011 to an estimated 441,000 in 2030. The proportion of invasive estrogen-receptor-positive cancers was expected to hold steady at 63%, while that of estrogen-receptor-positive cancers that had not spread to other parts of the body was expected to increase, from 19% to 29%.
However, the researchers forecast a decline in the number of breast cancers that are not receptive to estrogen, which are known as ER-negative tumors. They are more difficult to treat because they do not respond to endocrine therapy. They are expected to decline from about 17% of all tumors to about 9%, for reasons that are not clear.
They also added that the age distribution of women with new breast cancers would change by 2010. The percentage of new cases occurring in women ages 70-84 expected to increase from 24% to 35% and that in women ages 50-69 was expected to fall from 55% to 44%.
The researchers have stated that even though the signs are not good, they hope that improved screening and awareness would help more and more women, and help turn the tide against breast cancer.